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[原创]山西一季度水泥产量超越2011年历史水平!需求全面回暖了?

genjuguojiatongjijuzuixinshuju,jinnianyijidushanxishengshuinichanliangwei507.96wandun,xiangbiquniantongqidafuzengzhang。fangyanquanguo,jinnianyijidushuinichanliangbiqunianzengchanle1518wandun,zheiqizhongyouyue1/5dezengzhanglianglaiziyushanxi。ciqian,zaishuinichanlianggaosuzengzhangdeshiqi,shanxishengyijidushuinichanliangyecongweichaoguo500wandun,zaiwoguoshuinixuqiufengzhiyijingguoquderujin,shanxiquechuangxialexinjilu,zheiqizhongdeyuanyinhezai,weilainengfouchixuni?

  一季度水泥产量占全年比重持续下降

  2002-2013nianshanxishenggudingzichantouzibaochikuaisuzengzhang,zaiguojiasiwanyicijizhengcezhihouchuxianzengsulishigaowei,2014-2015niangutoutouzizengsufanghuan,2016nianzhijingutouzengsujinyibufanghuan,jinyougeweishudezengzhang,2019nianyijidugutouzengzhang12.2%,zhonghuiliangweishu。yucixiangduiyingde,shanxishengdeshuinichanliangzai2011-2014nianjianbaochizaijiaogaoshuiping,qizhong2012-14niandadao4000wandunyishang,zhihousanniandafuxiahua,nianchanliangzai3500wandunzuoyou,2018nianyousuofusu,zhonghui4000wandun。congquannianchanlianglaikan,2018nianshishanxishengweishubuduodenianchan4000wandundenianfenzhiyi,dancongyijiduchanlianglaikan,2018nianquejinyoubudao200wandun,zhanquannianchanliangde4.79%,shilinianlaizuidishuiping。shishishang,zi2002nianyilaishanxishengyijidudeshuinichanliangzhanquanniandebizhongjiuzaichixuxiajiang,congjiejin16%xiajiangzhigeweishu。

  jinguanjinnianyijidushanxideshuinichanliangtongbidazhang,youqunianyijidudechanxudigudeyuanyin,dangengzhidezhuyideshizailiangshangyechaoyuelewangnian,leisidexianxiangzaitongchuhuabeideqitashengfenbingweichuxian。neimengguyijidushuinichanliangtongbizengzhang25%,danhegaofengqixiangbixiahualeyue80%,hebeiyijidushuinichanliangtongbizengzhang53%,hefengzhinianfenxiangbiweisuoleyue43%。


数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院


基建视角:公路投资相比高峰期大幅萎缩

  gonglutouzishijiaotongtouzizhongzhanbizuigaodebufen,yeshijijianduanshuinixuqiudezhuli。2019nianshanxiquanshenggonglu、jichangheshuniujianshejihuawanchengtouzi434yiyuan,qizhonggonglutouzijihuawei420yiyuan,yijiduwanchenggonglutouzijihua19yiyuan,zhanbi4.53%。2018niangusuanwanchenggonglutouzizai460yiyuanyishang,jinniangonglutouzijihuatongbizhishaoxiahua10%,zheibufendeshuinixuqiuyujijianghuiyousuoxiahua。congjiaotongjianshejiaodulaikan,jinnianxiabanniandeshuinixuqiubingbunengweichiyijidudegaosuzengzhang,jinguanzongtixuqiuyaohaoyu2014-17nian,danhejijianjianshedegaofengqixiangbishidafuweisuode。henxianran,jijiantouzicujinlejinnianyijidudeshuinixuqiudehuisheng,danquebushichuangxingaodezhuyaoyuanyin。



shujulaiyuan:jiaotongyunshubu,zhongguoshuiniwang,shuinidashujuyanjiuyuan


房地产视角:新开工和销售持续增长,棚改是背后推手

  jinnianyijidu,shanxishengfangdichanxinkaigongmianjidadao592.25wanpingfangmi,chaoguoqianyigegaodian2012nian(470.47wanpingfangmi),2018nianshi2011-2018niandecigaodian,yijiduxinkaigongmianji419.97wanpingfangmi。zailaikanxiaoshou,2011-2015nianyijidushanxiquanshengfangwuxiaoshoumianjidaduozai140wanpingmideshuipingshang,biandongbuda。2016nianqiyijiduxiaoshoumianjizhixianshangsheng,duanduansannianshixianlefanbei,2019nianyijidushixianle345.74wanpingfangmidexiaoshou,tongbizengzhang8.13%,xiangbiqiansannianzengsuyoulemingxiandexiajiang。2016nianyilaifangdichanshichangdefusuhepenggaidetuijinyoufenbukaideguanxi。2015nian,guowuyuanguofa37haowen《guowuyuanguanyujinyibuzuohaochengzhenpenghuquhechengxiangweifanggaizaojipeitaojichusheshijiansheyouguangongzuodeyijian》zhongyaoqiugedizaipenghuqugaizaogongzuozhong,jijituijinpenggaihuobihuaanzhi。2016nianqi,shanxishengzhujiantingduipenghuqugaizaojiadahuobihuaanzhigongzuozuolezhongdianbushu。

  duishuinixuqiudeyingxiangzailiangfangmian,yishibaozhangxingzhufang(baohanpenggai)dejianshe,ershihuobihuaanzhiduiyushangpinfangshichangdecijidailaidexinkaigongzengzhang。qizhongfangwujiansheshizhijiedeyingxiangyinsu,penggaitongguohuobihuaanzhiyingxiangfangdichanyecongerjianjieyingxiangdaoshuinixuqiu。jucibizherenweixinkaigongmianjidexingao,caishishuinichanliangxingaodeyuanyin,beihoutuishoujiushipenggai。


图3:山西省历年一季度房地产新开工面积及房屋销售面积

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院


后期需求展望:棚改大幅下滑,基建后期亦难支撑

  shanxishiquanguozuichadeshuinishichangzhiyi,shencengcideyuanyinshiqiguoyuyilaimeitanxingyedefazhanmoshi,bingqieganggangcongtafangshifubaihejingjiduanyashixiahuazhongzouchulai,jizhongnanfan,jingjizhuanxingnanduda。danjidudeshuinichanliangchuangxingao,hennanrangrenxiangxinyige“chasheng”turanchengjibianyouxiu。

  jijiankansirenao,zhengcepinfa,duiyushanxieryan,jianshegaofengqizaoyiguoqu,muqianjinjinshizai2014-17niandedimiqizhihoudefusu。jinnianxiabanniandeshuinixuqiubingbunengweichiyijidudegaosuzengzhang,quanniankanjijianduanxuqiushenzhihaijiangyousuoxiahua。

  fangdichanfangmian,jinnianpenggaijihuazhouranxiahua。2016-2018nian,shanxipenggaifenbiekaigong21wantao(jihua)、12.65wantao(shijiwancheng,jihuawei9.88wantao)、11.6wantao(jihua),2019niandejihuaxinkaigongjinyou3.24wantao,xiahuamingxian。penghuqudejianshezhijieyingxiangshuini,yejikaigongliangdexiahuabiranjiangdizheibufenshuinixuqiu,danzheibufendeliangxiangduizongtishichangrongliangjiaoxiao,yingxiangjibiehuozaibaiwandunzuoyou,erduishangpinfangshichangdeyingxiangshijianjiede、xuyaoyiduanshijianchuandaode,hunzazhengce、shichangdeyingxiang,duanqineinanyipanduan。zongeryanzhi,penggaixiahuazhijieyingxiangbuda,danrongyiyinfaduominuoxianxiang,shanxidefangdichanshichangzhangqihaijianghuiguichangtai!


shujulaiyuan:shuinidashujuyanjiuyuan

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